Covered Bond Outlook 2025
Credit Markets Special Report , 12. Dec
- After a sharper-than-expected decline in issuance volume this year, we expect the covered bond primary market to stabilize in 2025.
- We expect new issues in the total market to amount to EUR 150-160 bn.
- We assume that the further development of risk premiums for covered bonds will depend to a large extent on the development of swap spreads in the SSA segment in the coming months.
- The residential real estate market will remain under critical observation throughout Europe, although the decline in residential real estate prices in the euro area seems to have bottomed out. In the area of commercial real estate (CRE), however, a sustainable recovery is not yet in sight.
- We expect new issues in the total market to amount to EUR 150-160 bn.
- We assume that the further development of risk premiums for covered bonds will depend to a large extent on the development of swap spreads in the SSA segment in the coming months.
- The residential real estate market will remain under critical observation throughout Europe, although the decline in residential real estate prices in the euro area seems to have bottomed out. In the area of commercial real estate (CRE), however, a sustainable recovery is not yet in sight.