Global trends shaping 2025 growth outlook

In recent CEE Outlook Global trends shaping 2025 growth outlook we discuss influence of global developments on the economic outlook in the region. Tariffs are expected to have a negative effect. On the other hand, plan to ReArm Europe (activating escape clause and introducing the new instrument worth EUR 150 billion) in combination with prospects of German huge infrastructure spending in the coming years should provide a fiscal impulse and boost the growth. Reaching the peace between Ukraine and Russia would be another growth positive factor for CEE. All in all, we expect 2025 GDP growth to accelerate in all CEE countries except for Croatia and Slovakia. In Croatia, we expect a slight cooling off, while Slovakia should sustain a similar pace of growth. Average growth in the region should be 0.6 percentage points higher in 2025 (2.6% vs. 2.0% in 2024). The acceleration of growth should be driven mainly by stronger growth of investment. Inflation has been elevated lately. While we still see monetary easing coming to the whole region in 2025, in most countries, it is likely to come later than we initially expected. The size of monetary easing will be smaller as well.