1Q GDP flash estimates – the first reality check

This week will provide more insight into the economic performance of several CEE economies in 1Q and the economic sentiment following the announcement of US reciprocal tariffs. Flash GDP growth estimates for 1Q25 will be published for Czechia, Hungary and Serbia. In Hungary and Czechia, the q/q dynamics are expected to slow down in 1Q25 compared to 4Q24, to 0.2% and 0.4%, from 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. A deceleration of growth is also expected in Serbia, where y/y growth is projected at 3%, down from 3.3% in 4Q24. This week, April PMIs and the Economic Sentiment Index will provide initial hints on how businesses and consumers perceive their current economic situation and outlook at the beginning of 2Q, shortly after the reciprocal tariffs were announced. Several CEE countries will publish their flash estimates of April inflation, which should ease, due to lower fuel prices. The first round of the repeated Romanian presidential elections will take place on Sunday. While surveys favor Simion as the likely winner of the first round, a much closer race is expected for his contender in the second round between the pro-government Antonescu and the mayor of Bucharest, Dan.