2025 growth forecast revised downwards

In response to recent releases of 4Q24 flash estimates and data for economic performance in the whole 2024, we published CEE Growth Navigator when we discuss forecasts revisions for 2025. In general, we expect 2025 GDP growth to accelerate in all CEE countries except for Croatia and Slovakia. Unfortunately, the recovery is not going to be as strong as we expected at the end of 2024 as we revised the full-year growth forecast downwards in several CEE countries. While in Romania and Serbia 2025 GDP revisions were more substantial (to 2% of GDP, from 2.8%, and to 3.8% of GDP, from 4.5%, respectively), in Czechia and Slovenia, adjustments were more marginal. Regarding inflation and interest rate outlook, we revised our 2025 inflation forecast upward in part of the region and ultimately see less space for monetary easing throughout 2025. In most of the countries, it is likely to come later than we initially expected (Poland and Serbia) or rate cuts will less extensive (Hungary).